South African motorists could face higher fuel prices in March 2026, with early data from the Central Energy Fund indicating under-recoveries across petrol and diesel. The projections affect drivers in Gauteng, where fuel costs directly influence transport, goods pricing, and household budgets. While the figures remain preliminary, current trends suggest both petrol and diesel are set to increase next month.
According to the Central Energy Fund’s mid-month fuel price outlook, international oil price movements and exchange rate fluctuations continue to drive local fuel price adjustments. The final decision will be announced by the Department of Mineral Resources and Energy at the end of February.
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What the early March projections show
Based on mid-February data, the projected adjustments for March 2026 are as follows:
• Petrol 93: increase of 2 cents per litre
• Petrol 95: increase of 3 cents per litre
• Diesel 0.05%: increase of 46 cents per litre
• Diesel 0.005%: increase of 48 cents per litre
• Illuminating paraffin: increase of 24 cents per litre
These figures reflect under-recoveries recorded during the current fuel price cycle.
Industry analysts note that diesel remains the most heavily impacted fuel category, largely due to sustained international oil price pressure.
Why are fuel prices moving upward?
Fuel price calculations in South Africa are influenced primarily by two factors:
• The average Rand to US Dollar exchange rate
• The global price of refined oil products
According to the Central Energy Fund, rising international oil prices have increased the basic fuel price component for March. Although the Rand has shown some strengthening against the US Dollar in recent weeks, it has not offset the upward pressure from global oil markets.
The Department of Mineral Resources and Energy uses this data to determine the official monthly adjustment.
Diesel drivers hit hardest
While petrol motorists are facing relatively minor projected increases, diesel users are likely to see more significant adjustments if current trends persist.
Diesel plays a critical role in freight and logistics, which means increases in diesel often ripple through to food, construction materials and retail goods. Gauteng, as the country’s economic hub, is particularly sensitive to these shifts due to its reliance on road transport and distribution networks.
Economists often track diesel movements closely as an early indicator of broader price pressures.
Exchange rate relief limits the damage
The Rand’s recent strengthening has helped soften what could have been steeper increases. Without currency support, under-recoveries may have resulted in larger hikes across all fuel categories.
However, global crude oil prices remain volatile. Any further international price increases before the end of February could still influence the final adjustment.
Fuel price snapshots are updated daily by the Central Energy Fund, meaning projections can shift until the official announcement is made.
How fuel adjustments are determined
Fuel prices in South Africa are adjusted monthly, usually taking effect on the first Wednesday of each month.
The calculation includes:
• The basic fuel price, influenced by global oil markets
• Wholesale and retail margins
• Distribution and storage costs
• Government taxes and levies
The Department of Mineral Resources and Energy publishes the official price adjustment statement shortly before implementation.
What This Means for Gauteng Residents
For Gauteng residents, even small increases in petrol and diesel have broader economic consequences. Higher fuel costs influence commuting expenses, public transport fares, delivery costs and ultimately the price of goods in stores.
Businesses operating fleets, logistics companies and ride-hailing drivers are especially sensitive to diesel increases. In urban centres such as Johannesburg, Tshwane and Ekurhuleni, transport remains a major household expense.
While petrol increases appear marginal for now, diesel projections suggest potential knock-on effects if confirmed.
The broader economic context
Fuel pricing remains closely linked to global geopolitical tensions and oil production decisions. International supply dynamics, including OPEC production targets and shipping disruptions, continue to affect pricing structures.
Locally, the fuel levy and Road Accident Fund levy form a significant portion of the pump price, although no levy adjustments have been announced for March at this stage.
Economic analysts will be watching whether March’s projected increase becomes part of a sustained upward trend or remains a short-term correction.
Frequently Asked Questions
Are these fuel increases confirmed?
No. The figures are projections based on mid-month data. The final adjustment will be announced by the Department of Mineral Resources and Energy.
When will the new fuel prices take effect?
If confirmed, the new prices will take effect on the first Wednesday of March 2026.
Why is diesel increasing more than petrol?
International refined product pricing has placed greater upward pressure on diesel.
Can the projections still change?
Yes. Daily fuel price data may shift before the final announcement.
Who determines the official fuel price?
The Department of Mineral Resources and Energy sets the official monthly fuel price.
What happens next
The Department of Mineral Resources and Energy is expected to release the official fuel price adjustment in the final days of February. Motorists will know the confirmed increase shortly before implementation in early March.
Until then, projections remain subject to change as global oil prices and exchange rates continue to fluctuate.
